The Walkaway Number · Chapter 10 · Give bad luck a calendar

The Downside Case Model

Run one disclosed monthly model through individual shocks, a buffer target, and one combined downside sequence.

Output: Eight target-arrival dates, a combined monthly ledger, a governing case, and five dated actions.

Time: About 45 minutes after the baseline is reconciled

Buffer targetUnresolved

Base arrivalUnresolved

Combined arrivalUnresolved

Governing caseSelected below

Record statusOpen

1. Reconcile the baseline

As-of dateAgeProfession or income contextCurrent invested assetsAnnual core spendingSelected targetAnnual contributionBase annual real return, percentBuffer years of core spending

2. Date each shock

Immediate drawdown, percentContribution pause starts, monthContribution pause duration, monthsOne-time outlayOutlay monthMonthly family supportIndividual support case starts, monthSupport duration, monthsCombined case support starts, monthLower annual real return, percentLower-return duration, months

Monthly order: apply return, add the end-of-month contribution after any pause or support reduction, subtract a dated outlay, then test the target.

3. Compare eight arrivals

Base

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Buffer only

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Drawdown

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Contribution pause

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

One-time outlay

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Family support

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Lower returns

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

Combined

Arrival month: Unresolved

Arrival date: Unresolved

Delay from base: Unresolved

4. Govern the interpretation

Governing caseQuarterly review dateCalibration note and boundary

The model is not a forecast. This is a deterministic timing model, not a probability engine, Monte Carlo simulation, forecast, or guarantee.

5. Assign five actions

1. Cash-reserve target

OwnerDue dateSpecific action and trigger

2. Contribution-flex rule

OwnerDue dateSpecific action and trigger

3. Insurance or benefit gap

OwnerDue dateSpecific action and trigger

4. Family-support cap

OwnerDue dateSpecific action and trigger

5. Quarterly model review

OwnerDue dateSpecific action and trigger

6. Monthly combined ledger

Month	Real return	Contribution	Outlay	Ending balance
Complete the dated baseline and every shock.

Professional-review flags

Return, tax, or retirement-planning reviewHousehold support or care commitment reviewLiquidity, insurance, or job-loss reserve review

Completion test

Reconcile the baseline, date every shock, run all eight cases under one monthly convention, select the governing case, inspect the combined ledger, and assign all five actions.

Monday Move

Run the contribution pause by itself before combining anything. One clean shock is easier to argue with than a spreadsheet thunderstorm.

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