Hard to Fire
Soft Landing · Chapter 5 · Financial runway

The Runway Calculator

Runway isn't a mood. It's dated math. Build it from expenses, reliable income, and cash you can actually spend.

Output: One dated Runway Calculator showing current runway, the first unresolved benefit, tax, debt, or plan deadline, and the next financial action.

Inputs0/20 amount lines recorded
Monthly burn$0
Reliable income$0
Net burn$0
Liquid assets$0
Current runwayRunway pending
ReadingWorking totals only. Record the calculation date and all 20 amount lines. 20 amount lines remain.
3-month checkpointPending
6-month checkpointPending
9-month checkpointPending

The first unresolved deadline isn't recorded yet.

The next financial action still needs an owner.

Next: record the calculation date.

1. Date the calculation

Use three months of statements where practical. Change one input at a time when testing a different case.

Use a three-month average. If an amount is estimated, round up rather than down and mark it estimated. Approximate inputs can be useful only when the uncertainty remains visible.

2. Adjusted monthly burn

Use post-elimination essentials. Subscriptions, dining out, and discretionary spending should already be removed or reduced.

1. Mortgage / RentUse the required monthly housing payment.
2. Utilities (electric, water, gas, internet)Use a three-month average where practical.
3. GroceriesUse the post-elimination household amount.
4. Transportation (gas, insurance, transit)Include essential transportation costs not entered elsewhere.
5. Health Insurance (COBRA / Marketplace)Use the full continuation amount until a current household replacement quote is verified.
6. Car PaymentEnter the required monthly payment.
7. Minimum Debt PaymentsEnter required minimums under the current terms.
8. Child Care / TuitionEnter the amount that remains essential during the search.
9. Insurance (auto, home, life)Do not duplicate insurance entered in another line.
10. Other Essential ExpensesInclude annual or irregular essentials as a monthly amount.

3. Reliable monthly incoming cash

Don't invent an unemployment number because the blank is making you itchy. Until the actual determination arrives, mark a conservative estimate and keep the uncertainty visible.

11. Unemployment Insurance (use your state's determination)If no determination exists, use a conservative estimate and mark it estimated.
12. Spousal / Partner Income (after tax)Use reliable after-tax monthly cash flow.
13. Severance (monthly installments only)Do not enter a lump sum here.
14. Other Reliable IncomeRental, side work, or another source only when reliable.

4. Spendable liquid assets

Do not include a 401(k), IRA, home equity, unvested stock, or car trade-in value unless the car is actually being sold. Include only cash spendable within 30 days without penalty.

15. Checking AccountsUse the current spendable balance.
16. Savings AccountsUse the current spendable balance.
17. Money Market AccountsInclude only accessible cash.
18. Severance (lump sum, after estimated tax)Count it only after it is received and spendable.
19. Accessible Investments (non-retirement only)Include only amounts spendable within 30 days without penalty.
20. Other Liquid AssetsExclude retirement assets, home equity, unvested stock, and property not being sold.

5. First unresolved deadline

6. Next financial action

Runway still has an unresolved input or output.

Completion test: The calculation is dated, all 20 amount lines explicitly contain a number including zero, estimated inputs are marked, the first unresolved deadline and its verification source are recorded, and one next financial action has an owner.

Read the band

12+ months: Strategic room

You have room to be selective. Search strategically and do not let anxiety override the math.

9 to under 12 months: Solid position

Search strategically, stay disciplined on burn, and revisit this calculator biweekly.

6 to under 9 months: Manageable

Monitor biweekly, compare your likely search duration, and price verified insurance alternatives.

3 to under 6 months: Tight

Accelerate the search, explore interim work, and contact creditors before a missed payment.

Under 3 months: Act immediately

Cut burn, pursue current hardship options, and consider contract, freelance, or temporary income.

If net monthly burn is zero or negative, do not report infinite runway. Report that current income covers the modeled burn, then track liquidity, income durability, and deadline risk separately.

Check the formula

David's base case

$76,000 divided by ($8,000 minus $4,450) = 21.4 months. Net monthly burn: $3,550.

David's alternate case

$48,750 divided by ($8,000 minus $2,050) = 8.2 months. Net monthly burn: $5,950.

These examples verify the arithmetic. They are not assumptions for your household.

Common mistakes

This is a cash model, not a prediction of search duration, benefit eligibility, tax treatment, creditor terms, or the future.

Monday Move

Enter the calculation date and the first expense. Finish the 20 amount lines in order, then record the first unresolved deadline and the next financial action.

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