Hard to Fire · Chapter 3 · Diagnostic

The Expendability Scorecard

Find which of seven factors are putting the most pressure on your name.

Score this quarter, not your greatest hits. A 1 means well protected. A 5 means highly exposed. Average the three ratings in each factor, then add the seven averages.

Factor 1: Cost/Compensation Band

A finance analyst is reviewing compensation distributions for your function. How exposed are you?

Three ratings

Is your compensation high relative to peers without a direct tie to revenue, risk reduction, or a client relationship that's easy to explain?

If someone asked ‘what does this person do that's worth that number,’ would the answer take more than one sentence?

Does the headcount report make your cost more visible than your documented outcomes?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 2: Future-State Fit

How well do you fit the company's picture of what it wants to look like in eighteen months?

Three ratings

Is the company hiring people with noticeably different profiles than yours?

Does the future-state language actively exclude your profile, experience level, or work style?

Are you attached to a division, product, or workflow that's been flagged for sunsetting or restructuring?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 3: Manager Advocacy

When your name comes up in a calibration meeting, how strong is your manager's case for you?

Three ratings

Would your manager struggle to articulate your value in executive language?

Is your manager new, distracted, or managing too many people to track what you actually do?

Has your manager shown signs of distance, disengagement, or friction with you?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 4: Political Sponsorship

Is there someone above your manager whose interests are served by your continued employment?

Three ratings

Do you lack relationships with anyone above your immediate chain?

Would the people above your manager struggle to name something specific you've delivered?

Are you isolated, with no cross-functional relationships or sponsors who would notice if your name appeared on a list?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 5: AI Replaceability

Could a less experienced person with AI tools do this job at an acceptable level?

Three ratings

Is your primary output something AI handles reasonably well, such as analysis, documentation, reporting, or code?

Are you failing to use AI in ways that are visible to management?

Has leadership compared staffing levels, productivity targets, or role costs after introducing AI-assisted workflows?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 6: Performance Perception

What story does your manager tell about you when you're not in the room?

Three ratings

Would someone two levels above you struggle to name what you accomplished last quarter?

Does your performance narrative rely on effort language instead of outcome language?

Have you had a bad quarter, a PIP, or surprising feedback without a recent win strong enough to overwrite it?

Factor average:Incomplete

Factor 7: Organizational Optics/Process Risk

If your name appeared on the list, how clear and defensible would the selection process be?

Three ratings

Are the selection criteria vague, shifting, or undocumented?

Is your role described through proxy language such as ‘fit’ or ‘cost’ rather than documented outcomes?

Would your manager struggle to give a neutral, job-related rationale for the decision?

Factor average:Incomplete

Total pressure scoreComplete all 21 ratings

Interpretation—

Range7–35

Immediate priorities: —

Watch combinations: —

First quiet, strategic move

How to read the total

Under 14: Fewer individual exposure signals are visible.
14–21: Mixed exposure. Focus on the highest factors.
22–28: High individual exposure. Multiple factors are working against you.
Above 28: Multiple high-exposure signals. Strengthen what you can influence and build optionality around what you cannot.

Treat anything at 4.0 or above as an immediate priority. Watch combinations at 3.5 or higher. This is a pressure gauge, not a layoff forecast, so quietly fix what you can and build options around what you cannot.